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Wed, 07 Apr 2010 - 20:00
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Daily Equity Report
*global markets*
The MSCI World Equity Index, driven by both emerging and developed markets, closed at +6.2% for the month. Among the selected equity indices, the MSCI Turkey index rose by 16.1%, followed by MSCI South Africa at a positive 10.8%. The Dow ahs approached the 11,000 level, evident of the continued appetite for riskier assets.
As we have been discussing in recent reports, the big asset allocation call over the next decade is going to be between investing in real assets or government bonds.
History clearly indicates that the average global government bond fund has outperformed the average global equity fund over the 20 years to the end of 2009.
Source : Orbis
The outperformance did not occur in a linear fashion. From a starting position in 1990, global equities outperformed other asset classes, but then from 2000, US bonds, global bonds and US bank deposits all outperformed the average global equity fund by a wide margin.
The overall result is a 20 year outperformance of bonds over equities
. Average global equity funds -- 5,1% . Average global bond fund -- 6,3%
Asset classes move in and out of favour over long periods of time and it's very seldom that the best asset class over the last 10 years proves to be the best over the next 10 years.
A comment from Orbis carries weight:
/"We have found the most reliable indicator of the attraction of an asset, or asset class, is their valuation at the time of purchase. Valuations of government bonds are currently very high, or put another way, the returns they offer in the form of yield are very low. In times of financial crisis, investors become keenly aware of the risk of nominal loss. Government bonds offer protection against nominal loss (absent the risk of default), but they are far from free of risk. If the objective is to increase the future purchasing power of ones' savings, government bonds look risky to us given the high risk of real loss."/
As to investing into global equities, Ken Fisher, a typical bull on the market, notes this, "One year into the current bull market I like what I see: globally improving fundamentals plus strong societal skepticism."
As to global asset allocation decision, our conclusion remains the same -- while government bonds have outperformed over the last 10 and indeed 20 years, given their current starting valuations, this is unlikely to be the case over the next 10 and 20 years.
Preference should be given to investing into the equity of global high quality cash generating companies, with low debt, and businesses expanding into the developing markets
Kind regards
Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
Wed, 07 Apr 2010- 17:32
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--------------030205030406090602040200 Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Daily Equity Report
global markets
The MSCI World Equity Index, driven by both emerging and developed markets, closed at +6.2% for the month. Among the selected equity indices, the MSCI Turkey index rose by 16.1%, followed by MSCI South Africa at a positive 10.8%. The Dow ahs approached the 11,000 level, evident of the continued appetite for riskier assets.
As we have been discussing in recent reports, the big asset allocation call over the next decade is going to be between investing in real assets or government bonds.
History clearly indicates that the average global government bond fund has outperformed the average global equity fund over the 20 years to the end of 2009.
Source : Orbis
The outperformance did not occur in a linear fashion. From a starting position in 1990, global equities outperformed other asset classes, but then from 2000, US bonds, global bonds and US bank deposits all outperformed the average global equity fund by a wide margin.
The overall result is a 20 year outperformance of bonds over equities
• Average global equity funds – 5,1%
• Average global bond fund – 6,3%
Asset classes move in and out of favour over long periods of time and it’s very seldom that the best asset class over the last 10 years proves to be the best over the next 10 years.
A comment from Orbis carries weight:
“We have found the most reliable indicator of the attraction of an asset, or asset class, is their valuation at the time of purchase. Valuations of government bonds are currently very high, or put another way, the returns they offer in the form of yield are very low. In times of financial crisis, investors become keenly aware of the risk of nominal loss. Government bonds offer protection against nominal loss (absent the risk of default), but they are far from free of risk. If the objective is to increase the future purchasing power of ones’ savings, government bonds look risky to us given the high risk of real loss.”
As to investing into global equities, Ken Fisher, a typical bull on the market, notes this, “One year into the current bull market I like what I see: globally improving fundamentals plus strong societal skepticism.”
As to global asset allocation decision, our conclusion remains the same – while government bonds have outperformed over the last 10 and indeed 20 years, given their current starting valuations, this is unlikely to be the case over the next 10 and 20 years.
Preference should be given to investing into the equity of global high quality cash generating companies, with low debt, and businesses expanding into the developing markets
Kind regards
Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
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