Wednesday, 02 May 2012 - 20:00
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Relative Valuation Methods Anyone who has spent any time valuing a business, or its indivisible unit, a share in a business, knows that there is not one specific method, but rather a range of valuations methodologies that can be applied when formulating the valuation.
At its most basic level, the value of a share today is the discounted value of all future cash flows that will be generated from the share. While simple in theory, in order to try and determine a theoretical value, investment analysts spend a lot of time on forecasting a company’s future income stream. However, even armed with accurate information on future earnings for a specific company, because we live in a world with extensive investment choice, the investment process often comes down to making an assessment of one investment option relative to another.
This so called relative valuation methodology is widely used and in many respects is simpler than making an assessment of the value on an absolute basis. Ultimately investors have choice and so even after performing a thorough valuation, an investor will produce a ranking table in order to compare one investment option against other competing investments.
As with all investment tools there is not one method that is infallible so when adopting a relative valuation methodology, an investor is looking for certain relationship patterns that tend to hold over time.
A few examples of relative valuation techniques that investors use include the following:
• The earnings yield or dividend on shares relative to the current yield on money market or yield on property shares.
• The price of one share relative to another share – usually, but not necessarily, in the same sector.
• The price of one sector relative to another – or an index in one country relative to another country.
• The price of a share relative to its underlying book value over time to determine if relatively cheap or expensive.
• One currency relative to another currency.
Even one of the most common valuation methods used – the price to earnings – or PE method is in essence a relative valuation method, when extended to comparing a company’s PE to the market average PE. With this method, company’s actual earnings are defined as a ratio to the number of shares in issue to arrive at earnings per share (EPS). Once the common yardstick has been obtained in the form of the PE, then it becomes easy to compare one traded share price to another in a relative format.
Look at the chart below, which compares the PE ratio of Anglo American relative to the PE ratio of Massmart over a 10 year period. This so called PE relative chart is a common tool used by analysts to gauge where value is appearing. This chart does not imply that either share is attractive or unattractive in its own right, but it gives a clear sense of the relative outperformance of Massmart against Anglo American over 10 years.
PE relative of Anglo American to Massmart
Source: I-Net and Seed Investments
Ten years ago, Anglo American had a PE ratio of 18 compared to Massmart’s 8. While the PE ratios have, on average, been almost equal over the past 10 years Anglo American’s PE has declined to 8 compared to Massmart’s 34 – i.e. one quarter of Massmart’s PE and a deterioration of some 90% over this time frame.
Analysts will say things like Anglo American looks cheap relative to the market or relative to consumer shares. There may be very valid reasons why one company’s valuation has deteriorated on a relative basis over time, but this is where an analyst should do additional work in order to make an assessment of the fundamental reasons. So by all means, make use of relative valuation techniques. They can be very powerful, but in and by themselves they will not tell the full story.
Kind regards,
Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
Wed, 02 May 2012
Top News
South African government bonds rallied on Wednesday and yields fell on strong demand from foreign accounts but the rand weakened against the dollar, tracking a softer euro as data pointed to weak growth in that region. Full story
South Africa's broad All-share index closed at a record high on Thursday, as improving Chinese manufacturing data boosted appetite for Johannesburg-listed resource firms such as BHP Billiton. Full story |
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Blind Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng left the U.S. Embassy in Beijing on Wednesday after winning concessions from Communist Party authorities that will keep him as a pivotal figure in China-U.S. relations, but a supporter said he made the decision "reluctantly" after his family were threatened with reprisals. Full storyMyanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi took a historic oath on Wednesday to join a parliamentary system crafted by the generals who locked her away for much of her long struggle against dictatorship, ushering in a dramatic new political era. Full storySuicide bombers attacked a compound housing Westerners in Kabul on Wednesday hours after U.S. President Barack Obama signed a security pact during a short visit to a city that remains vulnerable to a resilient insurgency. Full story |
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Markets | European shares fell on Wednesday
after a weak euro zone manufacturing report heightened concerns
about the region's economic crisis and U.S. data dampened
optimism. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, a
day after the Dow closed at its highest level in more than four
years, as data showed. . . Full story | | Britain's blue-chip index dipped
on Wednesday, surrendering much of the previous session's gains
as weaker banking and oil stocks outweighed stronger
performances from Next. . . Full story | | Global stocks and the euro fell
o n W ednesday after weak euro zone manufacturing and U.S.
private-sector jobs data fueled concerns about. . . Full story |
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| European shares fell on Wednesday
as w eak e uro zone macro data further raised concerns about the
region's debt crisis and U.S.. . . Full story | | Gold prices fell on Wednesday
along with the euro as U.S. factory orders data helped the
dollar extend early gains and as speculation. . . Full story | | European shares extended losses in
the afternoon on Wednesday after weak U.S. factory orders cast a
shadow on the recovery prospects of Europe's. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks opened lower on
Wednesday after a report on private sector job creation was
weaker than expected, giving nervous investors another reason. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South Africa's seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53.7 in April from 55.1 in March, declining for the second straight month as lack of demand from Europe weighed on new. . . Full story | | South African ferrochrome producer Merafe said on Wednesday output from its joint-venture with London-listed Xstrata fell 21 percent in the first quarter after some furnaces were suspended to cut down on. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand held steady near a month high on Wednesday, having rallied with a stronger euro, while the local market was closed for a holiday in the previous session.. . . Full story |
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| South African mobile operator Vodacom said on Wednesday it expects to report a gain of up to 10 percent in full-year earnings, hit by tax on higher dividends paid and depreciation. . . Full story | | Bharti Airtel,
India's biggest mobile operator, may face higher operating costs
due to possible bandwidth purchases, further eroding profits
that have been battered by fierce price competition for more
than two years.. . . Full story | | General Motors Co first
proposed taking a controlling stake of more than one-third in
Isuzu Motors Ltd - an investment worth some $3 billion
- but is now seeking a smaller holding after the. . . Full story |
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Company News | Seardel advised that for the year ended 31 March 2012 the company expects its financial results to fall within the following. . . Full story | | The board of directors of B&W ("the board") notified its shareholders that Mr Steve Pinkney has resigned as an executive director. . . Full story | | The board of directors of PSV ("board") announced the appointment of Ms Portia Molefe as an independent non-executive director to the. . . Full story | | Rockwell announced the results of its diamonds sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012. Total proceeds of USD6.0 million were. . . Full story |
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| It is with great sadness that the MMI Holdings board announced the death of Mr Thys Visser, a non-executive director on. . . Full story | | Notification was given that Wiseman Khumalo, an independent non-executive director of Wescoal, has been appointed as an executive director with effect. . . Full story | | Shareholders are advised that Ms Babalwa Ngonyama and Ms Neo Phakama Dongwana have been appointed non-executive directors of the board of. . . Full story | | Textainer announced the closing of a USD1.2 billion warehouse securitization facility. Textainer Marine Containers II Ltd. ("TMCLII"), a new Textainer asset. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue increased to R763.5 million (R680 million). Gross profit rose to R202.8 million (R172.5 million) and EBITDA improved to R97.4 million (R76.5 million). Net attributable profit increased to R55.6 million (R46.5 million). In addition, headline earnings per share grew to 47.79c (40.85cps).
Prospects
The current order book at Conco together with higher than expected levels of bidding, tenders awaiting adjudication and the prospects of the Department of Energy Renewable Energy Ten. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 34482.43 | 83.39 | 0.24% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 30446.28 | 81.69 | 0.27% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2236.89 | -3.72 | -0.17% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 25219.77 | 1.58 | 0.01% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 38752.20 | 57.31 | 0.15% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 32605.94 | 59.33 | 0.18% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 50559.22 | 299.38 | 0.60% | DJ Futures | 26/04 | 13022.00 | 5.00 | 0.00% | DJ Ind | 19:45 | 13257.22 | -22.10 | -0.17% | SP 500 | 20:00 | 1401.79 | -4.03 | -0.29% | Nasdaq | 20:00 | 3056.93 | 6.49 | 0.21% | FTSE 100 | 17:35 | 5758.11 | -54.12 | -0.93% | DAX | 19:36 | 6710.77 | -50.42 | -0.75% | CAC40 | 19:36 | 3226.33 | 13.53 | 0.42% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 9380.25 | 29.30 | 0.31% | Shanghai | 09:26 | 2438.44 | 42.12 | 1.76% | Hang-Seng | 10:26 | 21309.08 | 214.87 | 1.02% | All Ords | 08:41 | 4504.80 | 7.50 | 0.17% | NZSE 50 | 07:46 | 3614.97 | 37.65 | 1.05% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:59 | 1652.47 | -10.38 | -0.62% | Gold/Rand | 20:00 | 12776.57 | -75.99 | -0.59% | Gold/R kg | 20:00 | 410767 | 510 | 0.12% | Silver | 19:59 | 30.5550 | -.3940 | -1.27% | Platinum | 19:59 | 1559.50 | -8.50 | -0.54% | Palladium | 19:59 | 667.10 | -9.90 | -1.46% | R157 | 17:02 | 6.39 | -.07 | -1.08% | R204 | 17:02 | 7.21 | -.08 | -1.10% | Brent Crude | 19:56 | 118.13 | -1.46 | -1.22% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 7.7318 | 0.0028 | 0.04% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 12.4939 | -0.0154 | -0.12% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 10.1770 | -0.0578 | -0.56% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 6.2599 | -0.0407 | -0.65% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 7.9813 | -0.0105 | -0.13% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 80.1490 | 0.0580 | 0.07% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7597 | 0.0046 | 0.61% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3157 | -0.0080 | -0.60% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6172 | 0.0009 | 0.15% |
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The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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02/05/2012 | 175 | 150 | 94 | 419 | 223,579,915 | R13,619,664,125 | 92838 | 2764027 | 30/04/2012 | 189 | 124 | 84 | 397 | 192,333,675 | R10,687,424,678 | 81236 | 2449844 | 26/04/2012 | 221 | 127 | 74 | 422 | 273,577,369 | R18,700,375,379 | 88070 | 2588118 | 25/04/2012 | 210 | 125 | 83 | 418 | 248,569,397 | R15,061,528,641 | 86233 | 2469731 | 24/04/2012 | 171 | 133 | 82 | 386 | 220,159,159 | R10,394,423,085 | 80692 | 2346008 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 30,446.28 | 81.69 | 0.27% | Industrial | 38,752.20 | 57.31 | 0.15% | Mid Cap | 49,360.77 | 55.21 | 0.11% | Small Cap | 36,397.87 | 50.51 | 0.14% | Resource 20 | 50,559.22 | 299.38 | 0.60% | Industrial 25 | 32,605.94 | 59.33 | 0.18% | Financial 15 | 9,495.56 | -5.08 | -0.05% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 36,046.38 | 36.62 | 0.10% | All Share | 34,482.43 | 83.39 | 0.24% | Oil & Gas | 28,036.67 | 83.24 | 0.30% | Mining | 32,536.87 | 182.36 | 0.56% | Gold Mining | 2,236.89 | -3.72 | -0.17% | Platinum Mining | 56.56 | -.85 | -1.48% | GENERAL MINING | 8,478.11 | 90.43 | 1.08% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,074.80 | 44.76 | 0.30% | Basic Materials | 27,849.41 | 129.19 | 0.47% | Chemicals | 15,084.80 | -13.46 | -0.09% | Forestry & Paper | 14,272.66 | -62.34 | -0.43% | Industrial Metals | 30,828.16 | -193.20 | -0.62% | Industrials | 33,582.69 | -37.85 | -0.11% | General Industrials | 91.38 | -91557.34 | -99.90% | Consumer Goods | 33,346.99 | 4.22 | 0.01% | Automobiles & Parts | 6,080.07 | -31.70 | -0.52% | Household Goods | 183.37 | -3 | -1.63% | Health Care | 42,746.04 | 209.09 | 0.49% | Beverages | 110.76 | -.34 | -0.31% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 61,522.46 | 205.80 | 0.34% | Personal Goods | 482.60 | 2.19 | 0.46% | Consumer Services | 67,880.18 | 454.03 | 0.67% | General Retailers | 55,822.83 | 234.15 | 0.42% | Travel & Leisure | 3,792.69 | -55.98 | -1.45% | Media | 104.08 | 1.46 | 1.42% | Support Services | 2,440.56 | 43.39 | 1.81% | Telecommunications | 67,924.79 | 73.61 | 0.11% | Financials | 25,219.77 | 1.58 | 0.01% | Banks | 48,560.77 | -5.25 | -0.01% | Non-life Insurance | 44,153.42 | 204.18 | 0.46% | Life Insurance | 19,470.56 | -67.04 | -0.34% | General Financial | 2,368.66 | 4.46 | 0.19% | Technology | 28,816.42 | -33.27 | -0.12% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,094.18 | 11 | 0.36% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,215.44 | 10 | 0.32% | COAL MINING | 27,677.64 | 113 | 0.41% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 5,437.32 | -9 | -0.16% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,276.25 | 43 | 3.51% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 422.50 | | 0.34% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 341.46 | | 0.31% | RESOURCE | 27,840.98 | 145 | 0.52% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 200.09 | 0 | 0.10% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 7,158.33 | 5 | 0.07% | Capped Top 40 | 16,049.82 | 34 | 0.21% | Capped All Share | 17,439.28 | 40 | 0.23% | JSE TABACO | 5,128.16 | 46 | 0.90% |
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Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | CLS | CLICKS GROUP LTD | SELL | 30 Apr | INL | INVESTEC LIMITED | BUY | 26 Apr | HPA | HOSPITALITY PROP FUND A | BUY | 26 Apr | VPF | VUNANI PROP INV FUND LTD | BUY | 26 Apr | REB | REBOSIS PROPERTY FUND LTD | BUY | 26 Apr |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 03 May 2012 | REDEFINE | February 2012 (Interim) | 03 May 2012 | TREMATON | February 2012 (Interim) | 04 May 2012 | CULINAN5.5 | March 2012 (Interim) | 04 May 2012 | CULINANPR | March 2012 (Interim) | 04 May 2012 | CULLINAN | March 2012 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | HOSP-A | 12-04-30 | 12-05-18 | 12-05-28 | R 0.6334 | HOSP-B | 12-04-30 | 12-05-18 | 12-05-28 | R 0.0791 | REDEFINTL | 12-04-30 | 12-05-18 | 12-05-28 | R 0.0209 | CLICKS | 12-04-26 | 12-06-22 | 12-07-02 | R 0.4410 | ALTECH | 12-04-25 | 12-06-15 | 12-06-25 | R 2.4800 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | NTC PREF | 12-04-02 | 12-04-25 | 12-05-07 | R 3.7227 | SBR003 | 12-02-06 | 12-04-25 | 12-05-07 | R 1.4700 | CADIZ | 12-04-03 | 12-04-25 | 12-05-07 | R 0.5000 | VIVIDEND | 12-04-05 | 12-04-25 | 12-05-07 | R 0.2450 | BRIMSTON | 12-03-06 | 12-04-25 | 12-05-07 | R 0.1800 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | KDV | KayDav Group Ltd. | 03/05/2012 | Confirmed | MND | Mondi Ltd. | 03/05/2012 | Confirmed | MNDLP | Mondi Ltd. | 03/05/2012 | Confirmed | ASA | Absa Group Ltd. | 03/05/2012 | Confirmed | ABSP | Absa Bank Ltd. | 03/05/2012 | Confirmed |
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